Actually judges in a court of law quite often take remorse into account so not sure about that point. Its hard to say otherwise but accidents do happen and there is always the chance that he wasnt wanting to punch him in the head.
A stiff arm is nowhere near as bad as eye gouging or spear tackles, especially from behind. Eye gouges have the very real possibilty of causing a loss of sight, spear tackles can break necks. The worst (barring a horrendous freak accident) that would happen from what hore did happened with the player being knocked out. Dean Greyling got 2 weeks for flying, elbow cocked, at Richie Mccaws face. If Hore gets much more than that ill be very suprised.