The 2025 Guinness Six Nations reaches its dramatic conclusion this weekend, with three teams still in contention for the coveted championship title. France, England, and Ireland all have a mathematical chance of being crowned champions, but Les Bleus enter the final round as clear favourites to lift the trophy for the first time since 2022.
France Poised to Secure Glory
Following their emphatic victory over two-time defending champions Ireland in Dublin, France find themselves in pole position heading into the final round. With a one-point lead over England and two over Ireland, Fabien Galthié’s side can clinch the title with a bonus-point victory over Scotland at the Stade de France.
Given their substantial points difference advantage over England (+106 to +20), even a win without a bonus point would likely be enough for France to lift the trophy. A draw with a bonus point would also secure the championship, provided England and Ireland do not achieve maximum points in their respective matches. Remarkably, even a loss could see France triumph if results elsewhere go their way.
England’s Title Hopes Rest on Cardiff trip and Scottish favour
England head into the final round knowing they must beat Wales in Cardiff with a bonus point and hope Scotland can upset the odds in Paris. A regular victory might also be enough if France fails to secure a try-scoring bonus against Scotland.
With Ireland playing first against Italy, it is highly likely that Andy Farrell’s side will claim a bonus-point win and surpass England in the standings, meaning England would require a bonus-point win to reclaim second place. Should they achieve that and France lose, Steve Borthwick’s men would claim their first Six Nations title since 2020.
A more unlikely scenario exists where a draw or a defeat with two bonus points could still see England triumph, but that requires France and Ireland both losing without securing any bonus points.
Ireland Clinging to Faint Hope
Ireland, once on course for a historic third consecutive title and a potential Grand Slam, saw their campaign derailed by a crushing home defeat to France. Now sitting in third place, their title aspirations hinge on a remarkable series of results going their way.
First, they must secure a bonus-point victory over Italy in Rome and rack up a significant points tally to improve their currently inferior points difference compared to England. If they achieve this, they would leapfrog England and temporarily take the lead. However, their fate would still rest in the hands of others.
For Ireland to retain their crown, they need both England and France to lose their final fixtures. Should England win without a bonus point, then the title would come down to points difference between the two rivals.
Final Verdict: France’s Title to Lose
As Super Saturday looms, the permutations are clear: France control their destiny and are overwhelming favourites to secure the title. England’s hopes rest on a slip-up in Paris, while Ireland need a miracle to keep their hands on the trophy.
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